Target Price Playground
APPN
$20.22
๐ข
APPN IV: 59.5% โ LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $22 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.22 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.5 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $22 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$28 (1.3%) on $2,172 risked, vs +$178 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $2,022. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPN is at $22. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPN hits $22 by Jun 19
+$28
+1.3% on $2,172 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$272
Put floors you at $19
Break-even
$21.72
+7.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.35 / -1.42 / 3.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$202 | -$226 | -$253 | -$272 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$164 | -$193 | -$229 | -$272 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$117 | -$150 | -$193 | -$272 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$62 | -$97 | -$142 | -$251 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$25 | -$60 | -$105 | -$190 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$34 | -$79 | -$150 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$27 | -$7 | -$50 | -$110 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$70 | +$37 | -$4 | -$49 |
| $22 (+9%) โ target | +$126 | +$95 | +$59 | +$28 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$145 | +$114 | +$79 | +$52 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$225 | +$198 | +$169 | +$153 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$310 | +$286 | +$263 | +$254 |
Uses APPN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.