Target Price Playground
APPN
$20.22
๐ข
APPN IV: 59.5% โ LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.37 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.99 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $24 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-86 (-19.7%) on $436 risked, vs +$328 (16.2%) for 100 shares on $2,022. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPN is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPN hits $24 by Jun 19
$-86
-19.7% on $436 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$436
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$24.36
+20.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.39 / -3.21 / 6.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | +$58 | +$12 | -$34 | -$54 |
| $17 (-15%) | +$20 | -$38 | -$104 | -$155 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$3 | -$70 | -$154 | -$256 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$9 | -$83 | -$180 | -$357 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$5 | -$82 | -$182 | -$418 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$78 | -$179 | -$414 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$8 | -$70 | -$172 | -$374 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$24 | -$54 | -$154 | -$313 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$60 | -$15 | -$107 | -$212 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$108 | +$38 | -$43 | -$111 |
| $24 (+16%) โ target | +$122 | +$53 | -$26 | -$86 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$166 | +$102 | +$33 | -$10 |
Uses APPN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.