Target Price Playground
ARM
$148.93
๐ข
ARM IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.95 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.62 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $165 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$567 (130.9%) on $433 risked, vs +$1,607 (10.8%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 12.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $165 by Jun 19
+$567
+130.9% on $433 risked
Max Profit
+$567
If the stock โฅ $160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$433
Net debit
Break-even
$154.33
+3.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.75 / -0.46 / -1.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | -$305 | -$343 | -$398 | -$433 |
| $127 (-15%) | -$248 | -$286 | -$354 | -$433 |
| $134 (-10%) | -$182 | -$215 | -$281 | -$433 |
| $141 (-5%) | -$110 | -$131 | -$180 | -$433 |
| $146 (-2%) | -$65 | -$77 | -$110 | -$433 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | -$35 | -$41 | -$60 | -$433 |
| $152 (+2%) | -$5 | -$4 | -$9 | -$242 |
| $156 (+5%) | +$40 | +$51 | +$68 | +$205 |
| $165 (+11%) โ target | +$123 | +$152 | +$207 | +$567 |
| $171 (+15%) | +$180 | +$220 | +$295 | +$567 |
| $179 (+20%) | +$241 | +$291 | +$380 | +$567 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.