Target Price Playground
ARM
$148.93
๐ข
ARM IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.55 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.6 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $130 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$705 (88.7%) on $795 risked, vs $-1,893 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 7.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $130 by Jun 19
+$705
+88.7% on $795 risked
Max Profit
+$705
If the stock โค $135 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$795
Net debit
Break-even
$142.05
-4.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.48 / -1.07 / 4.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | +$375 | +$433 | +$538 | +$705 |
| $127 (-15%) | +$262 | +$306 | +$398 | +$705 |
| $130 (-13%) โ target | +$208 | +$243 | +$318 | +$705 |
| $134 (-10%) | +$142 | +$164 | +$215 | +$705 |
| $141 (-5%) | +$20 | +$15 | +$11 | +$57 |
| $146 (-2%) | -$53 | -$73 | -$111 | -$390 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | -$100 | -$130 | -$189 | -$688 |
| $152 (+2%) | -$145 | -$185 | -$264 | -$795 |
| $156 (+5%) | -$211 | -$264 | -$366 | -$795 |
| $164 (+10%) | -$312 | -$381 | -$507 | -$795 |
| $171 (+15%) | -$402 | -$480 | -$612 | -$795 |
| $179 (+20%) | -$478 | -$560 | -$684 | -$795 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.