Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $155 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$760 (6.0%) on $-760 credit (max loss $12,740), vs +$607 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | -$1,384 | -$1,211 | -$1,004 | -$826 |
| $127 (-15%) | -$949 | -$744 | -$479 | -$81 |
| $134 (-10%) | -$582 | -$359 | -$64 | +$664 |
| $141 (-5%) | -$280 | -$54 | +$241 | +$760 |
| $146 (-2%) | -$127 | +$95 | +$377 | +$760 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | -$36 | +$181 | +$451 | +$760 |
| $152 (+2%) | +$47 | +$258 | +$512 | +$760 |
| $155 (+4%) โ target | +$125 | +$328 | +$564 | +$760 |
| $164 (+10%) | +$309 | +$484 | +$665 | +$760 |
| $171 (+15%) | +$425 | +$574 | +$711 | +$760 |
| $179 (+20%) | +$513 | +$637 | +$735 | +$760 |