Target Price Playground
ARM
$148.93
๐ข
ARM IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $150 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.05 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.95 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $140 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$883 (144.7%) on $610 risked, vs $-893 (-6.0%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 24.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $140 by Jun 19
+$883
+144.7% on $610 risked
Max Profit
+$883
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$542
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$158.73
+6.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.02 / 1.71 / 5.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | +$333 | +$378 | +$434 | +$421 |
| $127 (-15%) | +$301 | +$354 | +$438 | +$520 |
| $134 (-10%) | +$257 | +$311 | +$409 | +$688 |
| $140 (-6%) โ target | +$213 | +$263 | +$358 | +$883 |
| $146 (-2%) | +$163 | +$205 | +$284 | +$540 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | +$137 | +$173 | +$241 | +$391 |
| $152 (+2%) | +$109 | +$140 | +$194 | +$256 |
| $156 (+5%) | +$67 | +$87 | +$119 | +$80 |
| $164 (+10%) | -$5 | -$3 | -$9 | -$150 |
| $171 (+15%) | -$77 | -$92 | -$132 | -$313 |
| $179 (+20%) | -$146 | -$176 | -$241 | -$424 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.