Target Price Playground
ARM
$148.93
๐ข
ARM IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.95 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $165 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-195 (-11.5%) on $1,695 risked, vs +$1,607 (10.8%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $165 by Jun 19
$-195
-11.5% on $1,695 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,695
Premium paid
Break-even
$166.95
+12.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.01 / -12.59 / 25.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | -$1,344 | -$1,499 | -$1,641 | -$1,695 |
| $127 (-15%) | -$1,146 | -$1,348 | -$1,562 | -$1,695 |
| $134 (-10%) | -$888 | -$1,130 | -$1,415 | -$1,695 |
| $141 (-5%) | -$569 | -$840 | -$1,180 | -$1,695 |
| $146 (-2%) | -$347 | -$630 | -$991 | -$1,695 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | -$187 | -$475 | -$844 | -$1,695 |
| $152 (+2%) | -$18 | -$309 | -$682 | -$1,504 |
| $156 (+5%) | +$252 | -$40 | -$410 | -$1,057 |
| $165 (+11%) โ target | +$827 | +$544 | +$202 | -$195 |
| $171 (+15%) | +$1,284 | +$1,016 | +$707 | +$432 |
| $179 (+20%) | +$1,864 | +$1,618 | +$1,355 | +$1,177 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.