Target Price Playground
ARM
$148.93
๐ข
ARM IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $148.93 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.95 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $165 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$512 (3.2%) on $15,988 risked, vs +$1,607 (10.8%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $165 by Jun 19
+$512
+3.2% on $15,988 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,988
Put floors you at $140
Break-even
$159.88
+7.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.48 / -10.47 / 24.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | -$1,560 | -$1,716 | -$1,888 | -$1,988 |
| $127 (-15%) | -$1,291 | -$1,486 | -$1,727 | -$1,988 |
| $134 (-10%) | -$956 | -$1,177 | -$1,467 | -$1,988 |
| $141 (-5%) | -$556 | -$789 | -$1,099 | -$1,840 |
| $146 (-2%) | -$286 | -$521 | -$829 | -$1,393 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | -$95 | -$328 | -$629 | -$1,095 |
| $152 (+2%) | +$105 | -$124 | -$415 | -$797 |
| $156 (+5%) | +$421 | +$199 | -$70 | -$350 |
| $165 (+11%) โ target | +$1,074 | +$877 | +$658 | +$512 |
| $171 (+15%) | +$1,583 | +$1,406 | +$1,227 | +$1,139 |
| $179 (+20%) | +$2,217 | +$2,066 | +$1,931 | +$1,884 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.