Target Price Playground
ARM
$148.93
๐ข
ARM IV: 58.2% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $148.93 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.62 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARM hits $160 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,369 (17.4%) on $13,631 risked, vs +$1,107 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $14,893. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARM is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARM hits $160 by Jun 19
+$2,369
+17.4% on $13,631 risked
Max Profit
+$2,369
If the stock โฅ $160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$13,631
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$136.31
-8.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.75 / 12.13 / -26.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | -$1,940 | -$1,823 | -$1,736 | -$1,717 |
| $127 (-15%) | -$1,336 | -$1,173 | -$1,026 | -$972 |
| $134 (-10%) | -$783 | -$574 | -$355 | -$227 |
| $141 (-5%) | -$287 | -$36 | +$254 | +$517 |
| $146 (-2%) | -$16 | +$255 | +$583 | +$964 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | +$152 | +$435 | +$785 | +$1,262 |
| $152 (+2%) | +$311 | +$603 | +$971 | +$1,560 |
| $156 (+5%) | +$532 | +$836 | +$1,223 | +$2,007 |
| $160 (+7%) โ target | +$697 | +$1,006 | +$1,401 | +$2,369 |
| $164 (+10%) | +$857 | +$1,168 | +$1,566 | +$2,369 |
| $171 (+15%) | +$1,130 | +$1,438 | +$1,822 | +$2,369 |
| $179 (+20%) | +$1,357 | +$1,653 | +$2,004 | +$2,369 |
Uses ARM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.