Target Price Playground
ARQQ
$12.53
๐ก
ARQQ IV: 105.5% โ NORMAL
(-11.0% vs 30d avg of 118.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $14 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.18 ยท ฮ 0.59
SHORT CALL ยท $14 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.91 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $14 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns $-27 (-21.0%) on $127 risked, vs +$147 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $14. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARQQ hits $14 by Jun 19
$-27
-21.0% on $127 risked
Max Profit
+$-27
If the stock โฅ $14 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$127
Net debit
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.16 / 0.04 / -0.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$105 | -$108 | -$113 | -$127 |
| $11 (-15%) | -$101 | -$103 | -$108 | -$127 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$97 | -$98 | -$101 | -$127 |
| $12 (-5%) | -$93 | -$93 | -$95 | -$127 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$90 | -$90 | -$90 | -$127 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | -$89 | -$88 | -$87 | -$124 |
| $13 (+2%) | -$87 | -$86 | -$84 | -$99 |
| $13 (+5%) | -$84 | -$83 | -$80 | -$61 |
| $14 (+10%) | -$81 | -$78 | -$73 | -$27 |
| $14 (+12%) โ target | -$79 | -$76 | -$71 | -$27 |
| $14 (+15%) | -$77 | -$73 | -$67 | -$27 |
| $15 (+20%) | -$73 | -$68 | -$61 | -$27 |
Uses ARQQ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.