Target Price Playground
ARQQ
$12.53
๐ก
ARQQ IV: 105.5% โ NORMAL
(-11.0% vs 30d avg of 118.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.05 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $12 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.62 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $11 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$57 (134.7%) on $43 risked, vs $-153 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 11.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARQQ hits $11 by Jun 19
+$57
+134.7% on $43 risked
Max Profit
+$57
If the stock โค $12 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$43
Net debit
Break-even
$12.07
-3.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.71 / -0.11 / 0.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | +$29 | +$31 | +$36 | +$57 |
| $11 (-15%) | +$25 | +$25 | +$28 | +$57 |
| $11 (-12%) โ target | +$22 | +$22 | +$24 | +$57 |
| $11 (-10%) | +$20 | +$20 | +$21 | +$57 |
| $12 (-5%) | +$15 | +$14 | +$13 | +$17 |
| $12 (-2%) | +$13 | +$11 | +$8 | -$21 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | +$11 | +$9 | +$5 | -$43 |
| $13 (+2%) | +$9 | +$7 | +$2 | -$43 |
| $13 (+5%) | +$7 | +$4 | -$2 | -$43 |
| $14 (+10%) | +$3 | -$1 | -$9 | -$43 |
| $14 (+15%) | -$1 | -$6 | -$15 | -$43 |
| $15 (+20%) | -$5 | -$10 | -$20 | -$43 |
Uses ARQQ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.