Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $13 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$162 (16.4%) on $-162 credit (max loss $988), vs +$47 (3.8%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 4.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $13. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$107 | -$76 | -$38 | +$14 |
| $11 (-15%) | -$75 | -$43 | +$0 | +$77 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$47 | -$13 | +$33 | +$140 |
| $12 (-5%) | -$23 | +$13 | +$59 | +$162 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$9 | +$27 | +$73 | +$162 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$35 | +$82 | +$162 |
| $13 (+2%) | +$8 | +$43 | +$89 | +$162 |
| $13 (+4%) โ target | +$15 | +$50 | +$96 | +$162 |
| $13 (+5%) | +$19 | +$55 | +$100 | +$162 |
| $14 (+10%) | +$36 | +$71 | +$114 | +$162 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$52 | +$85 | +$126 | +$162 |
| $15 (+20%) | +$65 | +$98 | +$134 | +$162 |