Target Price Playground
ARQQ
$12.53
๐ก
ARQQ IV: 105.5% โ NORMAL
(-11.0% vs 30d avg of 118.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.05 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $11 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-55 (-26.8%) on $205 risked, vs $-153 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARQQ hits $11 by Jun 19
$-55
-26.8% on $205 risked
Max Profit
+$1,045
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$205
Premium paid
Break-even
$10.45
-16.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-40.93 / -1.58 / 2.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | +$136 | +$107 | +$73 | +$43 |
| $11 (-15%) | +$100 | +$68 | +$28 | -$20 |
| $11 (-12%) โ target | +$81 | +$48 | +$5 | -$55 |
| $11 (-10%) | +$67 | +$33 | -$12 | -$83 |
| $12 (-5%) | +$38 | +$2 | -$46 | -$145 |
| $12 (-2%) | +$22 | -$16 | -$65 | -$183 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | +$11 | -$26 | -$77 | -$205 |
| $13 (+2%) | +$2 | -$37 | -$87 | -$205 |
| $13 (+5%) | -$13 | -$51 | -$102 | -$205 |
| $14 (+10%) | -$34 | -$72 | -$123 | -$205 |
| $14 (+15%) | -$53 | -$91 | -$140 | -$205 |
| $15 (+20%) | -$70 | -$108 | -$154 | -$205 |
Uses ARQQ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.