Target Price Playground
ARQQ
$12.53
๐ก
ARQQ IV: 105.5% โ NORMAL
(-11.0% vs 30d avg of 118.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $14 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $12.53 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $12 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.88 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $14 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-41 (-2.9%) on $1,441 risked, vs +$147 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $14. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARQQ hits $14 by Jun 19
$-41
-2.9% on $1,441 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$241
Put floors you at $12
Break-even
$14.41
+15.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.31 / -1.51 / 2.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$135 | -$165 | -$201 | -$241 |
| $11 (-15%) | -$106 | -$138 | -$180 | -$241 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$73 | -$108 | -$153 | -$241 |
| $12 (-5%) | -$38 | -$74 | -$122 | -$241 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$15 | -$52 | -$100 | -$213 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$36 | -$85 | -$188 |
| $13 (+2%) | +$17 | -$21 | -$69 | -$163 |
| $13 (+5%) | +$42 | +$4 | -$44 | -$125 |
| $14 (+10%) | +$85 | +$48 | +$1 | -$63 |
| $14 (+12%) โ target | +$100 | +$64 | +$17 | -$41 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$130 | +$94 | +$49 | +$0 |
| $15 (+20%) | +$178 | +$143 | +$101 | +$63 |
Uses ARQQ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.