Target Price Playground
ARQQ
$12.53
๐ก
ARQQ IV: 105.5% โ NORMAL
(-11.0% vs 30d avg of 118.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $15 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.18 ยท ฮ 0.59
LONG PUT ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.05 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $15 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-323 (-61.8%) on $523 risked, vs +$197 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 3.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARQQ hits $15 by Jun 19
$-323
-61.8% on $523 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$523
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
18.41 / -3.28 / 4.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$79 | -$139 | -$211 | -$275 |
| $11 (-15%) | -$88 | -$155 | -$238 | -$338 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$90 | -$163 | -$255 | -$401 |
| $12 (-5%) | -$87 | -$163 | -$262 | -$463 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$81 | -$160 | -$262 | -$501 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | -$77 | -$156 | -$260 | -$520 |
| $13 (+2%) | -$72 | -$151 | -$256 | -$495 |
| $13 (+5%) | -$62 | -$142 | -$247 | -$457 |
| $14 (+10%) | -$42 | -$123 | -$227 | -$395 |
| $15 (+16%) โ target | -$14 | -$94 | -$194 | -$323 |
| $15 (+20%) | +$11 | -$68 | -$164 | -$269 |
Uses ARQQ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.