Target Price Playground
ARQQ
$12.53
๐ก
ARQQ IV: 105.5% โ NORMAL
(-11.0% vs 30d avg of 118.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $14 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.18 ยท ฮ 0.59
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ARQQ hits $14 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-168 (-52.8%) on $318 risked, vs +$147 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $1,253. Options give 4.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ARQQ is at $14. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ARQQ hits $14 by Jun 19
$-168
-52.8% on $318 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$318
Premium paid
Break-even
$15.68
+25.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.33 / -1.7 / 2.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ARQQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$215 | -$247 | -$284 | -$318 |
| $11 (-15%) | -$188 | -$223 | -$266 | -$318 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$158 | -$195 | -$243 | -$318 |
| $12 (-5%) | -$125 | -$164 | -$216 | -$318 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$103 | -$144 | -$197 | -$318 |
| $13 (0%) โ spot | -$88 | -$130 | -$183 | -$315 |
| $13 (+2%) | -$73 | -$115 | -$169 | -$290 |
| $13 (+5%) | -$49 | -$91 | -$145 | -$252 |
| $14 (+10%) | -$8 | -$51 | -$104 | -$190 |
| $14 (+12%) โ target | +$7 | -$35 | -$89 | -$168 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$35 | -$6 | -$59 | -$127 |
| $15 (+20%) | +$81 | +$40 | -$10 | -$64 |
Uses ARQQ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.