Target Price Playground
ASAN
$5.46
๐ข
ASAN IV: 77.6% โ LOW
(-45.8% vs 30d avg of 143.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $6 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $5 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.5 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ASAN hits $6 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$50 (11.1%) on $-50 credit (max loss $450), vs +$4 (0.7%) for 100 shares on $546. Options give 15.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASAN is at $6. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ASAN hits $6 by Jun 19
+$50
+11.1% on $450 max loss
Max Profit
+$50
If the stock โฅ $5 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$450
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$4.50
-17.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
98%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
32.82 / 0.48 / -0.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ASAN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4 (-20%) | -$54 | -$43 | -$29 | -$13 |
| $5 (-15%) | -$39 | -$28 | -$12 | +$14 |
| $5 (-10%) | -$27 | -$14 | +$2 | +$41 |
| $5 (-5%) | -$15 | -$3 | +$14 | +$50 |
| $5 (-2%) | -$10 | +$3 | +$20 | +$50 |
| $6 (+1%) โ target | -$5 | +$8 | +$25 | +$50 |
| $6 (+2%) | -$2 | +$10 | +$27 | +$50 |
| $6 (+5%) | +$2 | +$15 | +$31 | +$50 |
| $6 (+10%) | +$10 | +$22 | +$36 | +$50 |
| $6 (+15%) | +$16 | +$27 | +$40 | +$50 |
| $7 (+20%) | +$21 | +$32 | +$43 | +$50 |
Uses ASAN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.