Target Price Playground
ASML
$1,476.50
๐ข
ASML IV: 45.6% โ LOW
(-34.1% vs 30d avg of 69.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1650 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1480 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $103.9 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ASML hits $1650 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$6,610 (63.6%) on $10,390 risked, vs +$17,350 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $147,650. Options give 5.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1650. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ASML hits $1650 by Jun 19
+$6,610
+63.6% on $10,390 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$10,390
Premium paid
Break-even
$1583.90
+7.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.25 / -93.5 / 233.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ASML Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1181 (-20%) | -$9,010 | -$9,753 | -$10,296 | -$10,390 |
| $1255 (-15%) | -$7,704 | -$8,867 | -$9,984 | -$10,390 |
| $1329 (-10%) | -$5,698 | -$7,277 | -$9,111 | -$10,390 |
| $1403 (-5%) | -$2,895 | -$4,793 | -$7,254 | -$10,390 |
| $1447 (-2%) | -$814 | -$2,831 | -$5,526 | -$10,390 |
| $1477 (0%) โ spot | +$737 | -$1,324 | -$4,096 | -$10,390 |
| $1506 (+2%) | +$2,416 | +$338 | -$2,447 | -$7,787 |
| $1550 (+5%) | +$5,163 | +$3,108 | +$416 | -$3,357 |
| $1624 (+10%) | +$10,295 | +$8,388 | +$6,069 | +$4,025 |
| $1650 (+12%) โ target | +$12,239 | +$10,407 | +$8,256 | +$6,610 |
| $1698 (+15%) | +$16,023 | +$14,349 | +$12,525 | +$11,407 |
| $1772 (+20%) | +$22,226 | +$20,817 | +$19,464 | +$18,790 |
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.