Target Price Playground
ASML
$1,476.50
๐ข
ASML IV: 45.6% โ LOW
(-34.1% vs 30d avg of 69.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1300 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1480 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $101.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ASML hits $1300 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$7,860 (77.5%) on $10,140 risked, vs $-17,650 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $147,650. Options give 6.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ASML hits $1300 by Jun 19
+$7,860
+77.5% on $10,140 risked
Max Profit
+$137,860
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$10,140
Premium paid
Break-even
$1378.60
-6.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.02 / -81.98 / 233.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ASML Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1181 (-20%) | +$20,047 | +$19,649 | +$19,470 | +$19,740 |
| $1255 (-15%) | +$13,972 | +$13,153 | +$12,399 | +$12,358 |
| $1300 (-12%) โ target | +$10,604 | +$9,526 | +$8,340 | +$7,860 |
| $1329 (-10%) | +$8,594 | +$7,360 | +$5,890 | +$4,975 |
| $1403 (-5%) | +$4,015 | +$2,462 | +$364 | -$2,407 |
| $1447 (-2%) | +$1,666 | -$6 | -$2,337 | -$6,837 |
| $1477 (0%) โ spot | +$264 | -$1,452 | -$3,860 | -$9,790 |
| $1506 (+2%) | -$1,010 | -$2,743 | -$5,164 | -$10,140 |
| $1550 (+5%) | -$2,693 | -$4,403 | -$6,732 | -$10,140 |
| $1624 (+10%) | -$4,942 | -$6,505 | -$8,461 | -$10,140 |
| $1698 (+15%) | -$6,597 | -$7,926 | -$9,387 | -$10,140 |
| $1772 (+20%) | -$7,777 | -$8,841 | -$9,831 | -$10,140 |
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.