Target Price Playground
ASML
$1,478.28
๐ข
ASML IV: 47.7% โ LOW
(-33.3% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1660 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1480 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $134.36 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ASML hits $1660 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$4,564 (34.0%) on $13,436 risked, vs +$18,172 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $147,828. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ASML is at $1660. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ASML hits $1660 by Jun 19
+$4,564
+34.0% on $13,436 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$13,436
Premium paid
Break-even
$1614.36
+9.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.91 / -97.92 / 252.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ASML Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1183 (-20%) | -$11,418 | -$12,436 | -$13,234 | -$13,436 |
| $1257 (-15%) | -$9,851 | -$11,318 | -$12,754 | -$13,436 |
| $1330 (-10%) | -$7,607 | -$9,490 | -$11,634 | -$13,436 |
| $1404 (-5%) | -$4,621 | -$6,815 | -$9,536 | -$13,436 |
| $1449 (-2%) | -$2,469 | -$4,778 | -$7,710 | -$13,436 |
| $1478 (0%) โ spot | -$887 | -$3,241 | -$6,243 | -$13,436 |
| $1508 (+2%) | +$809 | -$1,563 | -$4,580 | -$10,651 |
| $1552 (+5%) | +$3,556 | +$1,201 | -$1,741 | -$6,217 |
| $1626 (+10%) | +$8,638 | +$6,411 | +$3,796 | +$1,175 |
| $1660 (+12%) โ target | +$11,156 | +$9,021 | +$6,608 | +$4,564 |
| $1700 (+15%) | +$14,264 | +$12,255 | +$10,099 | +$8,566 |
| $1774 (+20%) | +$20,338 | +$18,590 | +$16,904 | +$15,958 |
Uses ASML's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.