Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ATEN hits $25 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$74 (3.5%) on $-74 credit (max loss $2,126), vs +$100 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $2,400. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ATEN is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ATEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19 (-20%) | -$236 | -$223 | -$209 | -$206 |
| $20 (-15%) | -$155 | -$135 | -$110 | -$86 |
| $22 (-10%) | -$88 | -$65 | -$33 | +$34 |
| $23 (-5%) | -$37 | -$13 | +$19 | +$74 |
| $24 (-2%) | -$13 | +$10 | +$40 | +$74 |
| $24 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$23 | +$49 | +$74 |
| $24 (+2%) | +$12 | +$33 | +$57 | +$74 |
| $25 (+4%) โ target | +$23 | +$42 | +$63 | +$74 |
| $26 (+10%) | +$45 | +$59 | +$71 | +$74 |
| $28 (+15%) | +$56 | +$66 | +$73 | +$74 |
| $29 (+20%) | +$64 | +$70 | +$74 | +$74 |