Target Price Playground
ATEN
$24.00
๐ข
ATEN IV: 38.5% โ LOW
(-49.0% vs 30d avg of 75.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $26 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $24.0 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $23 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.1 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ATEN hits $26 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$90 (3.6%) on $2,510 risked, vs +$200 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $2,400. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ATEN is at $26. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ATEN hits $26 by Jun 19
+$90
+3.6% on $2,510 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$210
Put floors you at $23
Break-even
$25.10
+4.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.73 / -1.04 / 3.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ATEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19 (-20%) | -$198 | -$207 | -$213 | -$210 |
| $20 (-15%) | -$169 | -$185 | -$203 | -$210 |
| $22 (-10%) | -$127 | -$149 | -$177 | -$210 |
| $23 (-5%) | -$71 | -$96 | -$130 | -$210 |
| $24 (-2%) | -$30 | -$55 | -$90 | -$158 |
| $24 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$25 | -$58 | -$110 |
| $24 (+2%) | +$32 | +$8 | -$23 | -$62 |
| $25 (+5%) | +$84 | +$61 | +$34 | +$10 |
| $26 (+8%) โ target | +$146 | +$125 | +$103 | +$90 |
| $26 (+10%) | +$178 | +$159 | +$140 | +$130 |
| $28 (+15%) | +$281 | +$266 | +$254 | +$250 |
| $29 (+20%) | +$389 | +$378 | +$371 | +$370 |
Uses ATEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.