Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder

AUR

$4.15

🟢

AUR IV: 89.5% — LOW (-23.8% vs 30d avg of 117.5%)

Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).

Forward Projection If price hits $4 by Jun 19

Historical Backtest Coming soon

Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle

Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

🎯 Target

Target Price

Target Date = option expiry

67d from today

Spot (today)

Quantity (how many of this strategy)

⚙️ Legs

LONG PUT · $4 · Jun '26

Qty 1 · Premium $0.45 · Δ -0.4

SHORT PUT · $4 · Jun '26

Qty 1 · Premium $0.45 · Δ -0.4

P&L at Expiry

Stock (100 sh) Bear Put Spread Now Target

💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If AUR hits $4 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$0 (0.0%) on $0 risked, vs $-65 (-15.7%) for 100 shares on $415.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AUR is at $4. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if AUR hits $4 by Jun 19

+$0

+0.0% on $1 risked

Max Profit

+$0

If the stock ≤ $4 at expiry

Max Loss

−$0

Net debit

Break-even

None% from spot

Prob. of Target Hit

62%

IV-implied, 67d (rough)

Net Δ / Θ / V

0.0 / 0.0 / 0.0

per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt

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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.

Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.

Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.

Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

AUR Price	Today	May 5	May 27	Jun 19 (exp)
$3 (-20%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (-16%) ← target	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (-10%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (-5%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (-2%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (0%) ← spot	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (+2%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$4 (+5%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$5 (+10%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$5 (+15%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0
$5 (+20%)	+$0	+$0	+$0	+$0

Uses AUR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.

Tradestie