Target Price Playground
BILL
$34.71
๐ข
BILL IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-61.7% vs 30d avg of 135.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $31 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $35 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.38 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $32 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.87 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $31 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$149 (98.5%) on $151 risked, vs $-371 (-10.7%) for 100 shares on $3,471. Options give 9.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $31. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BILL hits $31 by Jun 19
+$149
+98.5% on $151 risked
Max Profit
+$149
If the stock โค $32 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$151
Net debit
Break-even
$33.49
-3.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.72 / -0.2 / 0.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | +$76 | +$86 | +$106 | +$149 |
| $30 (-15%) | +$58 | +$65 | +$80 | +$149 |
| $31 (-11%) โ target | +$41 | +$45 | +$55 | +$149 |
| $33 (-5%) | +$19 | +$18 | +$18 | +$52 |
| $34 (-2%) | +$8 | +$4 | -$2 | -$53 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$5 | -$15 | -$122 |
| $35 (+2%) | -$7 | -$14 | -$27 | -$151 |
| $36 (+5%) | -$18 | -$27 | -$45 | -$151 |
| $38 (+10%) | -$35 | -$47 | -$71 | -$151 |
| $40 (+15%) | -$50 | -$65 | -$92 | -$151 |
| $42 (+20%) | -$65 | -$81 | -$109 | -$151 |
Uses BILL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.