Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $36 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$287 (9.9%) on $-287 credit (max loss $2,913), vs +$129 (3.7%) for 100 shares on $3,471. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $36. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | -$319 | -$265 | -$200 | -$136 |
| $30 (-15%) | -$222 | -$160 | -$81 | +$37 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$136 | -$70 | +$18 | +$211 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$63 | +$6 | +$96 | +$287 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$24 | +$45 | +$134 | +$287 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$68 | +$155 | +$287 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$22 | +$89 | +$174 | +$287 |
| $36 (+4%) โ target | +$40 | +$106 | +$189 | +$287 |
| $36 (+5%) | +$52 | +$118 | +$199 | +$287 |
| $38 (+10%) | +$96 | +$158 | +$229 | +$287 |
| $40 (+15%) | +$132 | +$189 | +$250 | +$287 |
| $42 (+20%) | +$162 | +$213 | +$264 | +$287 |