Target Price Playground
BILL
$34.71
๐ข
BILL IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-61.7% vs 30d avg of 135.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $37 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $34.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $37 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.58 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $37 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$587 (18.9%) on $3,113 risked, vs +$229 (6.6%) for 100 shares on $3,471. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $37. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BILL hits $37 by Jun 19
+$587
+18.9% on $3,113 risked
Max Profit
+$587
If the stock โฅ $37 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,113
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$31.13
-10.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.64 / 3.45 / -5.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | -$442 | -$395 | -$352 | -$336 |
| $30 (-15%) | -$315 | -$257 | -$197 | -$163 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$198 | -$131 | -$53 | +$11 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$94 | -$18 | +$75 | +$184 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$36 | +$44 | +$145 | +$289 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$83 | +$188 | +$358 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$34 | +$119 | +$227 | +$427 |
| $36 (+5%) | +$82 | +$169 | +$282 | +$532 |
| $37 (+7%) โ target | +$106 | +$194 | +$308 | +$587 |
| $38 (+10%) | +$154 | +$243 | +$358 | +$587 |
| $40 (+15%) | +$217 | +$306 | +$418 | +$587 |
| $42 (+20%) | +$271 | +$358 | +$464 | +$587 |
Uses BILL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.