Target Price Playground
BILL
$34.71
๐ข
BILL IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-61.7% vs 30d avg of 135.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $33 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $35 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.14 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $33 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.34 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $33 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$201 (111.6%) on $180 risked, vs $-171 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $3,471. Options give 22.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $33. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BILL hits $33 by Jun 19
+$201
+111.6% on $180 risked
Max Profit
+$197
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$140
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$37.59
+8.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.6 / 0.44 / 1.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | +$25 | +$37 | +$53 | +$51 |
| $30 (-15%) | +$22 | +$36 | +$58 | +$85 |
| $31 (-10%) | +$17 | +$31 | +$57 | +$134 |
| $33 (-5%) โ target | +$9 | +$23 | +$50 | +$202 |
| $34 (-2%) | +$4 | +$17 | +$42 | +$147 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$13 | +$36 | +$113 |
| $35 (+2%) | -$4 | +$8 | +$29 | +$82 |
| $36 (+5%) | -$10 | -$0 | +$17 | +$40 |
| $38 (+10%) | -$21 | -$15 | -$5 | -$18 |
| $40 (+15%) | -$33 | -$30 | -$28 | -$63 |
| $42 (+20%) | -$45 | -$45 | -$51 | -$96 |
Uses BILL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.