Target Price Playground
BILL
$34.71
๐ข
BILL IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-61.7% vs 30d avg of 135.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $31 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $35 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.38 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $31 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-38 (-8.8%) on $438 risked, vs $-371 (-10.7%) for 100 shares on $3,471. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $31. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BILL hits $31 by Jun 19
$-38
-8.8% on $438 risked
Max Profit
+$3,062
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$438
Premium paid
Break-even
$30.62
-11.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.69 / -3.0 / 5.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | +$396 | +$352 | +$306 | +$285 |
| $30 (-15%) | +$279 | +$225 | +$162 | +$112 |
| $31 (-11%) โ target | +$188 | +$126 | +$49 | -$38 |
| $33 (-5%) | +$82 | +$13 | -$78 | -$235 |
| $34 (-2%) | +$31 | -$41 | -$136 | -$340 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$73 | -$170 | -$409 |
| $35 (+2%) | -$29 | -$103 | -$201 | -$438 |
| $36 (+5%) | -$70 | -$145 | -$244 | -$438 |
| $38 (+10%) | -$131 | -$205 | -$300 | -$438 |
| $40 (+15%) | -$183 | -$254 | -$342 | -$438 |
| $42 (+20%) | -$227 | -$294 | -$373 | -$438 |
Uses BILL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.