Target Price Playground
BILL
$34.71
๐ข
BILL IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-61.7% vs 30d avg of 135.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $38 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $34.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $33 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.34 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $38 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-5 (-0.1%) on $3,805 risked, vs +$329 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $3,471.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $38. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BILL hits $38 by Jun 19
$-5
-0.1% on $3,805 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$505
Put floors you at $33
Break-even
$38.05
+9.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.45 / -2.9 / 5.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | -$349 | -$400 | -$459 | -$505 |
| $30 (-15%) | -$280 | -$340 | -$415 | -$505 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$198 | -$264 | -$351 | -$505 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$105 | -$175 | -$267 | -$505 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$43 | -$114 | -$206 | -$403 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$71 | -$163 | -$334 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$45 | -$26 | -$117 | -$265 |
| $36 (+5%) | +$115 | +$46 | -$42 | -$160 |
| $38 (+9%) โ target | +$226 | +$159 | +$78 | -$5 |
| $40 (+15%) | +$372 | +$310 | +$239 | +$187 |
| $42 (+20%) | +$511 | +$454 | +$394 | +$360 |
Uses BILL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.