Target Price Playground
BILL
$34.71
๐ข
BILL IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-61.7% vs 30d avg of 135.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $40 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $35 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.38 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $35 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.38 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BILL hits $40 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-377 (-43.0%) on $877 risked, vs +$529 (15.2%) for 100 shares on $3,471. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BILL is at $40. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BILL hits $40 by Jun 19
$-377
-43.0% on $877 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$877
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$26.23
-24.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.61 / -6.43 / 11.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BILL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | +$97 | -$0 | -$102 | -$153 |
| $30 (-15%) | +$38 | -$81 | -$217 | -$326 |
| $31 (-10%) | +$2 | -$134 | -$301 | -$500 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$10 | -$159 | -$349 | -$673 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$6 | -$160 | -$360 | -$778 |
| $35 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$156 | -$359 | -$847 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$11 | -$147 | -$353 | -$836 |
| $36 (+5%) | +$33 | -$126 | -$332 | -$731 |
| $38 (+10%) | +$85 | -$73 | -$272 | -$558 |
| $40 (+15%) โ target | +$159 | +$6 | -$178 | -$376 |
| $42 (+20%) | +$241 | +$96 | -$71 | -$211 |
Uses BILL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.