Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.99 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.5 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $155 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$551 (58.1%) on $949 risked, vs $-1,846 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 5.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $155 by Jun 19
+$551
+58.1% on $949 risked
Max Profit
+$551
If the stock โค $160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$949
Net debit
Break-even
$165.51
-4.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.83 / -2.08 / 4.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$277 | +$342 | +$445 | +$551 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$157 | +$212 | +$318 | +$551 |
| $155 (-11%) โ target | +$39 | +$76 | +$155 | +$551 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$121 | -$117 | -$104 | +$72 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$205 | -$220 | -$247 | -$448 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$260 | -$286 | -$339 | -$795 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$314 | -$351 | -$426 | -$949 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$390 | -$442 | -$544 | -$949 |
| $191 (+10%) | -$506 | -$575 | -$701 | -$949 |
| $199 (+15%) | -$605 | -$683 | -$808 | -$949 |
| $208 (+20%) | -$687 | -$765 | -$874 | -$949 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.