Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.89 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $185 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.01 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $195 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$212 (26.9%) on $788 risked, vs +$2,154 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $195 by Jun 19
+$212
+26.9% on $788 risked
Max Profit
+$212
If the stock โฅ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$788
Net debit
Break-even
$182.88
+5.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.62 / -3.97 / 1.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$687 | -$724 | -$769 | -$788 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$628 | -$669 | -$734 | -$788 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$556 | -$593 | -$664 | -$788 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$474 | -$499 | -$556 | -$788 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$421 | -$437 | -$476 | -$788 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$386 | -$394 | -$418 | -$788 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$351 | -$351 | -$358 | -$595 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$298 | -$287 | -$269 | -$75 |
| $191 (+10%) | -$214 | -$184 | -$128 | +$212 |
| $195 (+12%) โ target | -$175 | -$139 | -$69 | +$212 |
| $199 (+15%) | -$136 | -$93 | -$12 | +$212 |
| $208 (+20%) | -$68 | -$16 | +$73 | +$212 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.