Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $180 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$550 (3.6%) on $-550 credit (max loss $15,450), vs +$654 (3.8%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$1,964 | -$1,816 | -$1,657 | -$1,573 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$1,405 | -$1,214 | -$976 | -$706 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$938 | -$720 | -$431 | +$161 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$558 | -$332 | -$34 | +$550 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$370 | -$148 | +$138 | +$550 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$260 | -$43 | +$228 | +$550 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$161 | +$49 | +$302 | +$550 |
| $180 (+4%) โ target | -$82 | +$119 | +$354 | +$550 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$32 | +$163 | +$385 | +$550 |
| $191 (+10%) | +$140 | +$305 | +$471 | +$550 |
| $199 (+15%) | +$264 | +$399 | +$515 | +$550 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$354 | +$459 | +$535 | +$550 |