Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $173.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $185 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.01 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $185 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,855 (11.1%) on $16,645 risked, vs +$1,154 (6.7%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $185 by Jun 19
+$1,855
+11.1% on $16,645 risked
Max Profit
+$1,855
If the stock โฅ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$16,645
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$166.45
-4.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.42 / 8.11 / -27.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$2,927 | -$2,835 | -$2,777 | -$2,768 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$2,190 | -$2,049 | -$1,933 | -$1,901 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$1,515 | -$1,320 | -$1,128 | -$1,034 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$911 | -$668 | -$391 | -$166 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$587 | -$318 | +$3 | +$354 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$386 | -$104 | +$243 | +$701 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$198 | +$95 | +$463 | +$1,048 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$60 | +$366 | +$755 | +$1,568 |
| $185 (+7%) โ target | +$191 | +$501 | +$895 | +$1,855 |
| $191 (+10%) | +$432 | +$743 | +$1,138 | +$1,855 |
| $199 (+15%) | +$733 | +$1,036 | +$1,404 | +$1,855 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$973 | +$1,255 | +$1,577 | +$1,855 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.