Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.9 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.45 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $165 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$706 (129.6%) on $545 risked, vs $-846 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 26.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $165 by Jun 19
+$706
+129.6% on $545 risked
Max Profit
+$687
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$542
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$177.93
+2.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.73 / 1.84 / 6.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$402 | +$441 | +$478 | +$441 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$374 | +$426 | +$498 | +$520 |
| $156 (-10%) | +$329 | +$385 | +$482 | +$675 |
| $165 (-5%) โ target | +$265 | +$317 | +$414 | +$944 |
| $170 (-2%) | +$223 | +$269 | +$352 | +$651 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | +$192 | +$231 | +$302 | +$472 |
| $177 (+2%) | +$160 | +$192 | +$247 | +$312 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$110 | +$130 | +$159 | +$109 |
| $191 (+10%) | +$24 | +$23 | +$8 | -$145 |
| $199 (+15%) | -$60 | -$80 | -$131 | -$312 |
| $208 (+20%) | -$139 | -$175 | -$248 | -$415 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.