Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.99 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $155 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$501 (33.4%) on $1,499 risked, vs $-1,846 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $155 by Jun 19
+$501
+33.4% on $1,499 risked
Max Profit
+$16,001
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,499
Premium paid
Break-even
$160.01
-7.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.8 / -9.94 / 29.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$2,241 | +$2,158 | +$2,102 | +$2,124 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$1,562 | +$1,427 | +$1,294 | +$1,257 |
| $155 (-11%) โ target | +$1,032 | +$853 | +$647 | +$501 |
| $165 (-5%) | +$438 | +$215 | -$70 | -$478 |
| $170 (-2%) | +$165 | -$72 | -$385 | -$998 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$243 | -$567 | -$1,345 |
| $177 (+2%) | -$153 | -$399 | -$727 | -$1,499 |
| $182 (+5%) | -$358 | -$605 | -$929 | -$1,499 |
| $191 (+10%) | -$645 | -$881 | -$1,172 | -$1,499 |
| $199 (+15%) | -$869 | -$1,082 | -$1,322 | -$1,499 |
| $208 (+20%) | -$1,041 | -$1,224 | -$1,409 | -$1,499 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.