Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $173.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $195 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$2,154 (12.4%) on $17,346 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $195 by Jun 19
+$2,154
+12.4% on $17,346 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$17,346
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$173.46
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$3,469 | -$3,469 | -$3,469 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$2,602 | -$2,602 | -$2,602 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$1,735 | -$1,735 | -$1,735 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$867 | -$867 | -$867 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$347 | -$347 | -$347 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $177 (+2%) | +$347 | +$347 | +$347 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$867 | +$867 | +$867 |
| $191 (+10%) | +$1,735 | +$1,735 | +$1,735 |
| $195 (+12%) โ target | +$2,154 | +$2,154 | +$2,154 |
| $199 (+15%) | +$2,602 | +$2,602 | +$2,602 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$3,469 | +$3,469 | +$3,469 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.