Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $173.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.45 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $190 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$809 (4.4%) on $18,191 risked, vs +$1,654 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $190 by Jun 19
+$809
+4.4% on $18,191 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,691
Put floors you at $165
Break-even
$181.91
+4.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.33 / -9.03 / 28.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | -$1,410 | -$1,536 | -$1,659 | -$1,691 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$1,146 | -$1,321 | -$1,527 | -$1,691 |
| $156 (-10%) | -$794 | -$1,006 | -$1,280 | -$1,691 |
| $165 (-5%) | -$355 | -$586 | -$893 | -$1,691 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$51 | -$284 | -$592 | -$1,192 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | +$168 | -$64 | -$365 | -$845 |
| $177 (+2%) | +$398 | +$171 | -$118 | -$498 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$764 | +$547 | +$284 | +$22 |
| $190 (+10%) โ target | +$1,361 | +$1,167 | +$952 | +$809 |
| $199 (+15%) | +$2,137 | +$1,976 | +$1,821 | +$1,757 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$2,890 | +$2,760 | +$2,653 | +$2,624 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.