Target Price Playground
BKNG
$173.46
๐ข
BKNG IV: 31.5% โ LOW
(-57.6% vs 30d avg of 74.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.89 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.99 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BKNG hits $200 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-488 (-16.3%) on $2,988 risked, vs +$2,654 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $17,346. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BKNG is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BKNG hits $200 by Jun 19
$-488
-16.3% on $2,988 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,988
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$145.12
-16.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.4 / -22.02 / 58.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BKNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $139 (-20%) | +$1,013 | +$800 | +$640 | +$635 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$522 | +$204 | -$108 | -$232 |
| $156 (-10%) | +$183 | -$233 | -$713 | -$1,099 |
| $165 (-5%) | +$8 | -$483 | -$1,102 | -$1,967 |
| $170 (-2%) | -$16 | -$538 | -$1,211 | -$2,487 |
| $173 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$534 | -$1,228 | -$2,834 |
| $177 (+2%) | +$42 | -$499 | -$1,202 | -$2,795 |
| $182 (+5%) | +$150 | -$391 | -$1,085 | -$2,275 |
| $191 (+10%) | +$444 | -$73 | -$703 | -$1,407 |
| $200 (+15%) โ target | +$892 | +$423 | -$99 | -$488 |
| $208 (+20%) | +$1,388 | +$974 | +$557 | +$327 |
Uses BKNG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.