Target Price Playground
BLKB
$34.27
๐ด
BLKB IV: 124.6% โ HIGH
(+104.7% vs 30d avg of 60.9%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $30 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $34 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.72 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $32 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.64 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BLKB hits $30 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$91 (84.2%) on $109 risked, vs $-427 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $3,427. Options give 6.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BLKB is at $30. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BLKB hits $30 by Jun 19
+$91
+84.2% on $109 risked
Max Profit
+$91
If the stock โค $32 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$109
Net debit
Break-even
$32.91
-3.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.14 / -0.16 / 0.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BLKB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 (-20%) | +$37 | +$41 | +$51 | +$92 |
| $29 (-15%) | +$28 | +$30 | +$36 | +$92 |
| $30 (-12%) โ target | +$23 | +$24 | +$29 | +$92 |
| $31 (-10%) | +$19 | +$19 | +$21 | +$92 |
| $33 (-5%) | +$10 | +$7 | +$5 | +$36 |
| $34 (-2%) | +$4 | +$1 | -$4 | -$66 |
| $34 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$4 | -$10 | -$108 |
| $35 (+2%) | -$3 | -$8 | -$16 | -$108 |
| $36 (+5%) | -$8 | -$14 | -$25 | -$108 |
| $38 (+10%) | -$16 | -$24 | -$39 | -$108 |
| $39 (+15%) | -$24 | -$33 | -$51 | -$108 |
| $41 (+20%) | -$31 | -$42 | -$61 | -$108 |
Uses BLKB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.