Target Price Playground
BLKB
$34.27
๐ด
BLKB IV: 124.6% โ HIGH
(+104.7% vs 30d avg of 60.9%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $37 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $34.27 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $37 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.11 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BLKB hits $37 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$784 (26.9%) on $2,916 risked, vs +$273 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $3,427. Options give 3.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BLKB is at $37. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BLKB hits $37 by Jun 19
+$784
+26.9% on $2,916 risked
Max Profit
+$784
If the stock โฅ $37 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,916
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$29.16
-14.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
47.24 / 4.69 / -5.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BLKB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 (-20%) | -$389 | -$311 | -$227 | -$174 |
| $29 (-15%) | -$279 | -$190 | -$88 | -$3 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$178 | -$79 | +$40 | +$168 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$85 | +$22 | +$156 | +$340 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$34 | +$77 | +$218 | +$442 |
| $34 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$113 | +$258 | +$511 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$32 | +$147 | +$296 | +$580 |
| $36 (+5%) | +$77 | +$195 | +$348 | +$682 |
| $37 (+8%) โ target | +$119 | +$239 | +$395 | +$784 |
| $38 (+10%) | +$147 | +$268 | +$425 | +$784 |
| $39 (+15%) | +$210 | +$333 | +$491 | +$784 |
| $41 (+20%) | +$267 | +$390 | +$545 | +$784 |
Uses BLKB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.