Target Price Playground
BLKB
$34.27
๐ด
BLKB IV: 124.6% โ HIGH
(+104.7% vs 30d avg of 60.9%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $30 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $34 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.72 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BLKB hits $30 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-172 (-30.1%) on $572 risked, vs $-427 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $3,427. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BLKB is at $30. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BLKB hits $30 by Jun 19
$-172
-30.1% on $572 risked
Max Profit
+$2,828
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$572
Premium paid
Break-even
$28.28
-17.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-39.78 / -4.16 / 5.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BLKB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 (-20%) | +$338 | +$261 | +$169 | +$86 |
| $29 (-15%) | +$241 | +$155 | +$47 | -$85 |
| $30 (-12%) โ target | +$195 | +$105 | -$9 | -$172 |
| $31 (-10%) | +$152 | +$59 | -$61 | -$256 |
| $33 (-5%) | +$72 | -$26 | -$156 | -$428 |
| $34 (-2%) | +$28 | -$72 | -$205 | -$530 |
| $34 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$101 | -$236 | -$572 |
| $35 (+2%) | -$27 | -$129 | -$265 | -$572 |
| $36 (+5%) | -$64 | -$168 | -$304 | -$572 |
| $38 (+10%) | -$122 | -$226 | -$360 | -$572 |
| $39 (+15%) | -$174 | -$276 | -$406 | -$572 |
| $41 (+20%) | -$219 | -$320 | -$442 | -$572 |
Uses BLKB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.