Target Price Playground
BLKB
$34.27
๐ด
BLKB IV: 124.6% โ HIGH
(+104.7% vs 30d avg of 60.9%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $38 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $34.27 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $33 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.17 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BLKB hits $38 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-144 (-3.6%) on $3,944 risked, vs +$373 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $3,427. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BLKB is at $38. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BLKB hits $38 by Jun 19
$-144
-3.6% on $3,944 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$644
Put floors you at $33
Break-even
$39.44
+15.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.78 / -4.09 / 5.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BLKB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 (-20%) | -$366 | -$445 | -$542 | -$644 |
| $29 (-15%) | -$288 | -$375 | -$486 | -$644 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$200 | -$293 | -$416 | -$644 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$104 | -$202 | -$330 | -$644 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$43 | -$142 | -$273 | -$586 |
| $34 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$100 | -$232 | -$517 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$43 | -$57 | -$189 | -$448 |
| $36 (+5%) | +$110 | +$10 | -$121 | -$346 |
| $38 (+11%) โ target | +$250 | +$150 | +$24 | -$144 |
| $39 (+15%) | +$352 | +$254 | +$133 | -$3 |
| $41 (+20%) | +$481 | +$386 | +$272 | +$168 |
Uses BLKB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.