Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BLKB hits $36 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$464 (16.9%) on $-464 credit (max loss $2,736), vs +$173 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $3,427. Options give 3.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BLKB is at $36. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BLKB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 (-20%) | -$301 | -$220 | -$119 | +$6 |
| $29 (-15%) | -$213 | -$125 | -$11 | +$177 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$134 | -$41 | +$82 | +$348 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$62 | +$34 | +$161 | +$464 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$24 | +$73 | +$201 | +$464 |
| $34 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$98 | +$226 | +$464 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$24 | +$121 | +$248 | +$464 |
| $36 (+5%) โ target | +$57 | +$154 | +$279 | +$464 |
| $38 (+10%) | +$106 | +$202 | +$321 | +$464 |
| $39 (+15%) | +$149 | +$243 | +$355 | +$464 |
| $41 (+20%) | +$188 | +$278 | +$381 | +$464 |