Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BMNR hits $23 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$213 (12.3%) on $-213 credit (max loss $1,737), vs +$122 (5.7%) for 100 shares on $2,128. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BMNR is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BMNR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$188 | -$147 | -$95 | -$35 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$131 | -$86 | -$27 | +$72 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$82 | -$34 | +$30 | +$178 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$38 | +$11 | +$76 | +$213 |
| $21 (-2%) | -$15 | +$34 | +$99 | +$213 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$49 | +$113 | +$213 |
| $22 (+2%) | +$13 | +$62 | +$125 | +$213 |
| $23 (+6%) โ target | +$36 | +$84 | +$144 | +$213 |
| $23 (+10%) | +$60 | +$106 | +$162 | +$213 |
| $24 (+15%) | +$84 | +$128 | +$177 | +$213 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$104 | +$145 | +$188 | +$213 |