Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $24 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$341 (178.4%) on $-191 credit (max loss $0), vs +$263 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 14.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$201 | +$197 | +$192 | +$191 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$210 | +$203 | +$195 | +$191 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$221 | +$215 | +$204 | +$191 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$235 | +$230 | +$220 | +$191 |
| $21 (-2%) | +$244 | +$240 | +$233 | +$191 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$250 | +$248 | +$243 | +$191 |
| $22 (+2%) | +$256 | +$255 | +$253 | +$221 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$265 | +$267 | +$269 | +$285 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$280 | +$285 | +$293 | +$341 |
| $24 (+12%) โ target | +$287 | +$292 | +$303 | +$341 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$294 | +$300 | +$313 | +$341 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$305 | +$313 | +$326 | +$341 |