Target Price Playground
BOX
$21.37
๐ข
BOX IV: 39.4% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 73.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.53 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.68 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $19 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$115 (135.6%) on $85 risked, vs $-237 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 12.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BOX hits $19 by Jun 19
+$115
+135.6% on $85 risked
Max Profit
+$115
If the stock โค $20 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$85
Net debit
Break-even
$20.65
-3.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.72 / -0.15 / 0.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$83 | +$92 | +$105 | +$115 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$65 | +$74 | +$88 | +$115 |
| $19 (-11%) โ target | +$49 | +$55 | +$67 | +$115 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$44 | +$49 | +$60 | +$115 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$22 | +$22 | +$24 | +$35 |
| $21 (-2%) | +$9 | +$6 | +$1 | -$29 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$4 | -$13 | -$72 |
| $22 (+2%) | -$8 | -$14 | -$26 | -$85 |
| $22 (+5%) | -$20 | -$28 | -$42 | -$85 |
| $24 (+10%) | -$37 | -$47 | -$63 | -$85 |
| $25 (+15%) | -$51 | -$60 | -$74 | -$85 |
| $26 (+20%) | -$61 | -$70 | -$80 | -$85 |
Uses BOX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.