Target Price Playground
BOX
$21.37
๐ข
BOX IV: 42.6% โ LOW
(-42.1% vs 30d avg of 73.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.68 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $23 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$68 (3.6%) on $-68 credit (max loss $1,882), vs +$113 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BOX hits $23 by Jun 19
+$68
+3.6% on $1,882 max loss
Max Profit
+$68
If the stock โฅ $20 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,882
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$18.82
-11.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
26.17 / 0.87 / -2.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$205 | -$192 | -$177 | -$172 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$135 | -$116 | -$92 | -$66 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$78 | -$55 | -$26 | +$41 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$33 | -$10 | +$19 | +$68 |
| $21 (-2%) | -$12 | +$10 | +$37 | +$68 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$21 | +$45 | +$68 |
| $22 (+2%) | +$11 | +$30 | +$52 | +$68 |
| $23 (+5%) โ target | +$25 | +$42 | +$59 | +$68 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$40 | +$53 | +$65 | +$68 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$50 | +$60 | +$67 | +$68 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$57 | +$64 | +$68 | +$68 |
Uses BOX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.