Target Price Playground
BOX
$21.37
๐ข
BOX IV: 39.4% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 73.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $21.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $23 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.49 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $23 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$512 (28.6%) on $1,788 risked, vs +$163 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 3.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BOX hits $23 by Jun 19
+$512
+28.6% on $1,788 risked
Max Profit
+$512
If the stock โฅ $23 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,788
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$17.88
-16.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.98 / 1.31 / -3.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$87 | -$81 | -$78 | -$78 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$9 | +$20 | +$27 | +$28 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$99 | +$116 | +$130 | +$135 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$180 | +$203 | +$227 | +$242 |
| $21 (-2%) | +$223 | +$250 | +$280 | +$306 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$250 | +$279 | +$313 | +$349 |
| $22 (+2%) | +$275 | +$306 | +$343 | +$392 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$309 | +$341 | +$382 | +$456 |
| $23 (+8%) โ target | +$336 | +$369 | +$411 | +$512 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$357 | +$391 | +$433 | +$512 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$395 | +$427 | +$466 | +$512 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$424 | +$453 | +$486 | +$512 |
Uses BOX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.