Target Price Playground
BOX
$21.37
๐ข
BOX IV: 39.4% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 73.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.53 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $19 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$97 (63.5%) on $153 risked, vs $-237 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 5.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BOX hits $19 by Jun 19
+$97
+63.5% on $153 risked
Max Profit
+$1,997
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$153
Premium paid
Break-even
$19.97
-6.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.89 / -1.02 / 3.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$288 | +$284 | +$282 | +$287 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$201 | +$190 | +$180 | +$181 |
| $19 (-11%) โ target | +$138 | +$122 | +$105 | +$97 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$122 | +$105 | +$85 | +$74 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$55 | +$33 | +$4 | -$33 |
| $21 (-2%) | +$21 | -$4 | -$36 | -$97 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$25 | -$58 | -$140 |
| $22 (+2%) | -$19 | -$44 | -$78 | -$153 |
| $22 (+5%) | -$44 | -$69 | -$101 | -$153 |
| $24 (+10%) | -$77 | -$100 | -$127 | -$153 |
| $25 (+15%) | -$101 | -$121 | -$141 | -$153 |
| $26 (+20%) | -$118 | -$134 | -$148 | -$153 |
Uses BOX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.